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Some caveats to push it there:

Price:

$100/Euro/Yen drop in 2015.  19 months represents the longest time a Sony home console price remained unchanged from its launch price (PS2 from October 2000 to May 2002).  For 2015 that would put it at June.

Games:

Pretty much a major first/third party release every month capping with Uncharted in  November and possible FFXV in Japan first.

Adoptability:

More Wii, Xbox 360 users migrating over (pool of 180 million) and PS3 owners making the switch.

Potential Breakdown

North America: 9-11 million?

Europe/Rest of World: 9-11 million?

Japan: 1.5-2 million ?