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GamechaserBE said:

So How Big of a Boost Will the Tier 2 Countries Provide Xbox One
5k-10k 167 49.55%
10k-15k 57 16.91%
15k-20k 26 7.72%
20k-25k 25 7.42%
25k+ 62 18.40%
Total: 337

Almost half of the VGchartz users predicted that the boost will be 10k or less...Less than 20%  were right...     

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=189642

Pretty sure that's baseline talk, not launch numbers. In which case they should be correct, judging by low launch.