t3mporary_126 said:
Soundwave said:
t3mporary_126 said:
Soundwave said:
I think a Fusion platform could do reasonably quite well for Nintendo, but their execution needs to be *miles* better than their sloppy Wii U/3DS launches.
Super Mario Galaxy 3, Mario Kart 9, Animal Crossing Next, IMO should all already be in development for it *now* so that they're ready or almost ready for launch by spring/summer 2016. No lazy sequels ala NSMBU either ... I'd push the dev teams to make each installment of these titles the best possible. They should have an all-purpose "Nintendo Amiibo Universe" title too ala Skylanders by 2015/16.
There should be at minimum 2 big Japanese third party games early on too ... a Monster Hunter 5, Yokai Watch 3/4, Dragon Quest XI ... that type of thing.
They should make sure they have one killer app for launch and one more killer game 2-3 months after launch to prevent the dreaded post-launch lull.
I wouldn't go crazy courting third parties, but I'd sit down with a few key third parties and have very frank, open discussions. No bullsh*t, lets make some real deals here that are win-win for both sides.
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The next Pokemon RPG after X or whatever would take forever to be made if every game is held to Wii U graphics ot better now. over 700 Pokemon models and hundreds of attack animations is thei first hurdle. I don't see GameFreak supporting this unless Intelligent system, Monolith, and EAD help them out.
And what's your LT prediction of 3DS and Wii U? Because fusion needs to outsell both of those combined. Other wise a good handheld and a Nintendo home consoles with poor sales will still be the model.
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Ideally my launch would be something like this
May 2016 (Japan) - Animal Crossing Next + Nintendo Amiibo Universe
June 2016 - F-Zero Fusion (smaller budget title)
July 2016 - Monster Hunter 5 or Yokai Watch 3
August 2016 - Super Mario Galaxy 3
September - Xenoblade X (Wii U port)
October - Luigi's Mansion 3
November - Dragon Quest XI (Japan?)
December - Mario Kart 9
I think those dates are achievable too. The Animal Crossing team wrapped AC will have had 3 years to work on the next installment. The main EAD Tokyo group will have had 2 1/2 years to work on Mario Galaxy 3. Next Level will have 2+ years to work on Luigi's Mansion 3.
Mario Kart 9 team will have about 2 1/2 years to work on MK9. Give them some extra staff if they need it.
If they plan smartly now they can have a first year window that looks like this.
I think the LTD would be around 80 million if things go well, which is more than enough to make a sizable profit unless Nintendo decides to try in stupid gimmicks/expensive propietary chips that drive the cost of the hardware up. There is unfortunately only so much that can done against tablets/phones, that's just going to continue to be a thorn in Nintendo's side. They have to work harder and much smarter from now on.
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Shouldn't it release near the fall where video game systems sell better? And I think having handheld like games at launch would be better since Nintendo handhelds have better selling power than home console. The second year line up could have console like games (F-Zero and Galaxy 3) with more handheld like games released in between them (I'm defining handheld like games as retro RPGs, Super Mario Land, and Link Between Worlds versus console games like Super Mario 3D World, Xenoblade X, and Skyward Sword/Zelda U).
If you believe Fusion can sell 80 mil LTD, then you believe 3DS + Wii U is < 80-90 mil LTD? Let say Wii U happens to sale 20 mil. Are you limiting 3DS sales to 60-70 mil LTD?
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I don't think releasing in the fall is actually the defacto best way to do it. Launching earlier gives you a chance to build an install base for the holiday season and build up supply inventory so (if things go well) you're not stuck without systems to sell come December, as often tends to be the case. The home console variant could release in November though, let the handheld one come first in May.
Then you get two big boosts in your first 6-8 months ... your early adopters buying at launch and then you get another big boost for the holiday, if you manage the period in between to keep momentum high, this is preferable to launching in November, having the early adopters take all the systems and not having much or any left for regular consumers.
I think Wii U will cap off around 19 million and 3DS at about 75 million. But I think in the coming years, tablets/phones will continue to eat away at Nintendo's audience, so they will have to put up a gargantuan level of fight just to get to 80 mill next time out. It will get harder not easier from here on out, kids are introduced to phone/tablet gaming these days from like the age of 2/3. Hopefully for them either amiibo or Quality of Life also becomes a nice supplementary business.
I suspect Nintendo will look to get into animated movies in the next 5 years too (those Pikmin short films are probably a testing ground).
