WiiU Overtracked on VGC? ioi (Confirmed Overtracked)

[eva01beserk]

Barozi said:

eva01beserk said:

Barozi said:

It's called logic and experience.

I could counter your point pretty easily with your own (kind of) logic:

Nintendo lies with their shipment numbers. In reality they shipped 1.5 million to people and sold only 1 million.
They also bribed all of the trackers, so that it appears that they sold close to 7 million.

You can't know if that's wrong, unless YOU in person visit every household that there is and count all of the WiiUs that are sold.


Logic tells us, they aren't bribing anyone. The competitors would love to know that and pay a lot of money for such info or someone would've called them out due to a personal ethical conflict. Furthermore they are not lying with their shipment numbers either since they would get in a lot of trouble from shareholders.

This is in no way the point Im making. Are we acusing nintendo of lying about the shipments? No. people are acusing ioi, a person not afiliated at all with nintendo to not even be stuborm, bribed or anything of the sort, just that he made a mistake. Even if he agrees that a mistake was made but does not know where or how to fix it, you with your experience, what do you supose he do? Cave to complaints and ramdomly take a number and subtracte from the total? Or find the problem, or if someone actually knows where the problem lies to tell ioi so he can adjust the numbers? 

well I showed an extremely unlikely case, that cannot be proven true or wrong, but still has to be wrong in order for everything to make sense.

ioi didn't really made a mistake. He can't know the real numbers. Other trackers can't know them either.
we have other recent estimates for other countries (Japan, US a few of the big European countries) and some older estimates where we can see tendencies. We know in which regions it is definitely not too high, so we get an idea where it might be too high.

ioi doesn't have sources in every country the WiiU is sold. Some are purely "guesses" based on outdated data that had been released for previous consoles with no indication of how much that market is actually developing. It's very likely that it happened in those regions. Since we don't try to show sales data for every single country, there's no problem in just adjusting a whole region.

The rest is indeed experience. ioi (actually all of us) can easily compare all shipment numbers to the sales data on VGC (new and old consoles). That's an indicator of much it can be overtracked. The other being how much it's selling on a weekly basis and reports of people or retailers having trouble to buy/order more consoles.
Obviously no one of us can be right (ioi included), but (most of) those numbers that are thrown into the room are certainly closer to the truth than what is shown here.

I know it was an unlikely senario. I meant that its to far from what I'm trying to say and your painted a picture that its only perfect if the acusaton is wrong unlike whats actally hapening.

I get what you are saying and I belive your right, and the method discused is right and that it is overtracked. But like you say yourself, no body can know the actual number and its just a guess. But even if it does not make sence, cuz is highly unlikely that it can happen this way its not really impossible. Ass long as is not imposible and you have no real clue as to where is overtracked you cant really say that it definetly is. Its like wining the loto, its unlikely to happe, but it hapes so you cant just rule out that possibility.

A question I responded to seece in this thread is that what if the sold was higher then the shipped? And that was  senario where there would be no debate cuz the there can only be one answer and it was imposible to be that way. But this is not the case. Its unlikely that the wii u had 20k in shelves WW, but not imposible. 

@bold: So thats basicly your answer to my previous question? So if you dont like the numbers you can take out a ramdom amount of the unespecify area? What happened to the thread ioi made when people where complaining about the ps4 10m thing? He said it dosent work like that and needs to know where he  has made the mistake before adjusting the numbers and this is also the same thing. If this thing was done at random then this whole site has no validity.