Honestly I think the future of Japan belongs to the next-gen Nintendo handheld (likely fusion platform). That will probably give you "console-like" games that are playable anywhere and have the full breadth of Nintendo's development support behind it (rather than being split between console/portable).
Throw in things that are likely to come like Youkai Watch 3 and Monster Hunter 5, and that system will own Japan I think in the future.
Casual gamers, females, and a chunk of the kids market will go tablet/smartphone only.
That will basically be the entire Japanese game market in about 4 years time.







