atomicblue said:
People compare the PS4 to the Wii because they've been the consoles with the strongest launch periods out of each generation, and the PS4 is selling less than the Wii did.
I highly doubt the PS4 will crack 100 million unless this generation stretches on for 8-9 years. It's had a strong start, but when you compare all of the current-gen consoles to their last-gen predecessors at the same point in time, people aren't buying into this generation anywhere near as quickly as they did the last.
I did these calculations on another site about a month ago, though they're still fairly current:
PS4: 10m vs. PS3: 5m
One: 5m vs. 360: 5.5m
Wii U: 7m vs. Wii: 32m
Vita: 9m vs. PSP: 29m
3DS: 44.5-45m vs. DS: 55-60m
The PS4 is the only console tracking ahead of its direct predecessor right now. The XO and 3DS are tracking slightly behind, and the Wii U and Vita are tracking way behind. When you add everything together, it suggests people are either content with the consoles they bought last gen, or they've moved on to other devices like iPad, smart phones and even PC. The PS4 has also been riding a wave of insanely positive press whereas the PS3's reception was mostly mixed until a couple of years in; I suspect in a couple of years time, the PS4 won't be tracking so far ahead.
I think it's definitely possible that the PS4 will still go on to be this generation's best selling console (after the 3DS, anyway), but if so, I'd expect it to hit between 60-80 million. I don't think any console is likely to get much higher than that in this generation.
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This pretty much sums up my thoughts on the matter. I'm surprised...but not shocked...to see so many people so bullish on the potential for the PS4. We are in a much different market than the previous generation. Excluding tablets, smartphones, etc...the economy of today nowhere matches the economy of 2005-2008.
Really...to move outside this window the PS4 is going to have to release a game or peripheral that dominates the interwebs like an ALS Ice Bucket Challenge. I just don't think that's likely this time around.
