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Whenever 20nm yields and capacity at TSMC improve sufficiently to enable AMD to shrink the XB1 APU down and MS uses the opportunity to redesign the XB1 to reduce costs. The problem for MS is that Sony will have the same opportunity to reduce costs when 20nm hits, so will likely match any price cut MS does and maintain the sales momentum.

20nm production has just started at TSMC however production quantities and yields are low so production is currently focussing on mobile SoC's for Apple and Qualcomm (smaller dies than what the PS4 and XB1 APU's use, so yields aren't as big an issue). By Q1-Q2 2015 production should be sufficient to shrink the PS4 and XB1 APU's, so I'd peg a price cut for the PS4 and XB1 around the Mar-May 15 timeframe.