shikamaru317 said:
I'm not even sure they'd lose any money at $350. From what I've heard the manufacturing costs of the console (without Kinect) were a little bit over $350 last year when the system released. We already know that manufacturing costs for the PS4 have dropped some since last year, there's no reason why they wouldn't have dropped for Xbox One as well. That means that Microsoft could probably drop to $350 this year and at least break even on consoles sold. That's why I think they may announce $350 in October if September doesn't go well, if the tier 2 launches are smaller than MS is hoping for and if Destiny doesn't provide as much of an X1 boost as they were hoping for. History has proven that a price drop right before the Holiday season usually increases sales substantially. |
You know, I think you may be on to something there. I doubt Sony would bother reacting this year as they would almost certainly still win the holiday season with ease, but a $349 bundle from MS for Nov/Dec could go a long way imho towards boosting them enough to stay in the race. Sony's only real worry has to be manufacturing, as shortages could sting them due to strong global demand. I expect allocation to be very high for the US/UK for Sony, and that sucks for the EU fans, but if PS4 is constantly sold out after black friday, that gives a lot of ground to MS, because a fair number of people will be ready and wanting to buy, and will not turn down an X1, particularly if it's a $349 bundle.
I don't think anyone is prepared for how September will go. Every time people say 'wait for this' in regards to the X1, it doesn't happen the way they think. I've called it every step of the way.
(1)- X1 sells well in Nov/Dec, people think 'oh, it will sell evenly with PS4 from here on out, or will outsell it'.
/nope, it will fall behind, those sales only show the front-loading of hardcore Xbox fans jumping in thirsty for a new console after the longest gen of all time.
(2)- 'X1 will stomp with Titanfall, the most hyped and promoted exclusive of all time!'
/nope, it will give a boost, but won't be enough to make a lasting impact, not even giving the game away and cutting the price by 10%.
(3)- 'X1 will never drop to $399 before 2015'
/nope, they need a lower price NOW, they will find a way!
(4)- 'X1 will never drop Kinect'
/nope, they had to find a way to $399, and there you go, they found it!
(5)- 'X1 will get a mad boost when the $399 SKU hits! It will pass PS4 and win the US easily!'
/nope, it will make an impact for 1-2 days due to people who waited out May due to the early announcement, then fall back to around previous levels because deals were already better in some ways ($449 Titanfall Kinect bundle, yadda/etc).
And now we get to the rest :
(6)- 'X1 will get a boost from Destiny because reasons, and will start selling strongly!'
/nope, not much of a boost, they will trail the PS4 by a larger margin than ever. PS4 Destiny bundles have been building up at insane rates for months now, and those chickens will come to roost in September IN ADDITION to the baseline PS4 sales. The momentum started in September for PS4 will be wicked powerful.
(7)- 'X1 will get a huge boost from Halo MCC! It will outsell the PS4 then surely!'
/nope, remasters are not system sellers, no matter how much old stuff they put in. This is 2014, people want to play NEW games, or at least games new to them. TLOU probably sold 90% of its copies to people who didn't own a PS3 last gen. But who is excited about MCC that hasn't already played Halo games? I'm fairly sure that not many fall into that category. Best it can do is convince some die-hard Xbox/Halo fans to jump that haven't already. But as far as I can tell, most of the diehards have already moved.
(8)- 'X1 will get a huge boost from COD! PS4 has no chance against that!'.
/nope, the PS4 version will almost certainly be superior, and people know that by now, even many of the casuals. And the bundle? $499? Seriously? That's not going to fly in the time of $399 and less deals, 1TB drive or not. I do think COD will sell strongly to the XB1 owners, and have a higher attach rate, but the install base gap by COD release is likely to be over 1M+, so more copies of AW will easily be sold on PS4 overall in the US, and globally the gap will be ludicrous.
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See, all of this was and IS predictable. X1 is going to get blown out this fall unless they DO get brave and shake the picture up. What they have officially planned and released will only lead to failure and disappointment. They need to take the fight directly to Sony, make it $299 with a bundle, and make it HARD to turn down that deal. $399 has no chance of success with the factors at play. $349 makes it interesting. $299 makes it competitive.
