I do think the Xbox One will overtake the Wii U. But not for a very long time (ie. after Wii U successor is announced), unless it has a drastic turnaround in momentum. And as of today, I can't see that change in fortunes occurring any time soon.
The momentum all seems to be with the PS4 at the moment, which will drag the mass market Sony's way, and the Wii U is slowly picking up. This holiday is looking as though it's going to be Sony and Nintendo centric (with multiplats helping Sony and MK8, Smash and Amiibo helping Nintendo).
Next year could well be a different matter depending on what happens and what gets announced. But I don't see it being too different; Nintendo has some big games, Splatoon, Zelda, X etc. should give an excellent foundation, and the story has been shifting regarding them to be generally more positive. Whereas the story towards Microsoft is rather negative; that matters for the larger market and I don't think Halo 5 will help that much.
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