Why Microsoft will not win even In US & UK

[PsychoBliss]

I've been watching these forums for about a year now and these threads always amuse me. It's usually just fanboys/fangirls making statements and then calling other people out for being fanboys. Half the forum has predicted sales figures in their sigs but no-one ever seems to agree and despite this forum being filled with members more well read and familiar with the games industry you're almost always wrong.

Rarely does anyone posting know much about sales outside of USA, people never seem to post anything about economics from outside the industry, no-one really seems to consider the late buyers or casual market properly, people ignore the trend bubbles that happen. In effect, no-one really seems to know what they're talking about, or if they do they make no effort to prove that they do.

As for the consoles. I tend to agree with the OP (who posted reasons for his/her thinking for a change). I don't think the Xbox One has much of a chance now, but it's still "anyones game" till after this holiday period. With clever marketing they could outsell PS4 this Christmas and win the generation but I doubt it. The thing is anything can happen. The PSN being hacked again was a rumour, but if it had happened that kind of bad press at just the wrong time could screw over everything for Sony. Then there's Nintendo to think about, the Wii U may have started slow, glacier slow, but it's consistently outselling the Xbox One now and with a different approach to gaming makes sense for people on PC, who already own a PS4/XBO, or who own a PS3/360 and want something new that actually has something to play on it.

On the internet it's easy to get caught in an echo chamber. People keep saying the same thing online so it sounds like popular opinion but it's often not. Remember Xbox 360 sold the LEAST of last generation. The Xbox 360 LOST! But because the internet is heavily biased towards people who are online (obviously), and the English speaking world, particularly USA; it appears as though it was the console of choice last gen, and that's just not true. PSP was a "failure" if the internet is to be believed yet it's sold more than the PS3 and 360, and sold more than twice what the 3DS has currently sold. The internet has a skewed perspective and has tantrums when you tell it that it's wrong.

Personally I think this holiday period will be disappointing all round. PS4 will sell less than expected. Wii U will sell better than the internet expects but only because the internet hates Nintendo and either ignores or mocks it, however it'll still not meet PS4 sales and will be lower than Nintendo hopes. Xbox One will sell like a freshly dropped turd because gamers are capricious and have apparently decided it's crap despite PS4/XBO being practically identical. PS3 will sell far more than people expect because it's cheap and the games are dirt cheap now.

The reason I'd say this is that people have become disenfranchised, sales for consumer electronics, cinema tickets, DVDs/blu-ray, music, video games and cable/pay per view services are dropping across-the-board. People are getting bored very quickly, and this economy is built upon fashionable obsolescence; this is pretty much Apple's entire business model. No-one needs a new iPhone or iPad, they get them because they're fashionable and people impulse buy. This works for phones because you're tied into a contract for two years, then 18-20 months in they offer you an upgrade with a new phone and new contract just early enough to trap you with them for yet another two years. The current consoles sold massively day one but had a steep drop off in sales, this means it was largely impulse buys and hype. There's likely going to be a scary amount of used PS4/XBO sales because people bought them last holiday because of the hype and nothings come out on them that wasn't mediocre or on the last gen. I think that as the people who are easily swayed already have their new consoles, without clear next gen experiences everything will stuggle to sell. Wider economic trends indicate a time of austerity ahead and the video games industry still hasn't recovered from the 2008 recession. EA, Square Enix, Sony, Nintendo, Activision, hell even GameStop have had their stock-prices fall and none have recovered. The only one who recovered was Microsoft, and that's because it's Microsoft; and it's not as though the Xbox division has access to all that money anyway.

So yeah. Who will "win" this gen? Honestly hard to say. I'd say Nintendo are most secure as there's every chance Sony could go bankrupt if anything bad happens. The Wii U sales will also likely improve and stay steady over the coming years as people pick it as their second console for the exclusives. PS4 will probably win out simply because it's in the lead now and that makes a difference for developers (it's why Xbox 360 got better multiplats), and public opinion is for the moment on it's side. Xbox One I expect to take third place again as it has nothing to offer. Guessing sales numbers though I think is an exercise in futility, there's just too many variables.