| Aielyn said: I know that some people here consider VGChartz numbers to be "fake", "false", etc. I'm not one of those people. And while the system might be undertracked, that doesn't mean that recent numbers are wrong. Until the adjustment is made, and demonstrates where the data supports more sales, you can't confidently say anything about what the last 4 weeks (say) of numbers should really look like. As I've already pointed out, there are weeks where PS4 got a game that sold quite well, but saw little boost to PS4 sales. It's entirely possible that it is those weeks, mostly, that were undertracked, which would not contradict my hypothesis. Personally, I always wonder why people who think VGChartz numbers are nonsense continue to come here, post, etc. And as I've pointed out a few times, now, I wouldn't take Sony's announcement as gospel. Sony's access to sales numbers is limited in the same way that every company that tries to track the market is limited. Sony, for obvious reasons, is going to use highly-optimistic assumptions in analysing the data for press releases and announcements, especially if it allows them to make an announcement at a fortuitous time, like Gamescom. It doesn't make their numbers wrong, but it doesn't make them inherently more right than other sources. If we look, for a moment, at NPD numbers, here's what we see. PS4 for April at 199k (VGC has it at 222k). For May at 197k (VGC has it at 208k). For June at 267k (VGC has it at 257k). For July at 187k (VGC has it at 205k). So according to NPD, VGChartz is overtracking the PS4 in the US (by 42k). VGChartz numbers for Japan seem to line up quite well with Media Create and Famitsu. So that leaves Europe/Others for explaining a supposed undertracking by 700k (actually, the "correct" number is closer to 500k than 700k, because it includes an extra week that VGChartz doesn't yet have data for). It's possible that VGChartz has done this. It's also possible that Sony has been overly optimistic with their assumptions in Europe, perhaps due to their belief that demand is outstripping supply in mainland Europe. So my point is, why not wait until VGChartz actually updates the numbers before jumping to conclusions? In the meantime, I'll use the current VGChartz numbers for the simple fact that it's the only detailed numbers we have. By the way, even if we accept Sony's 10 million entirely, and assume that all data since April needs to be adjusted (+43k per week, 716k corrected total for July), and that the baseline needs to be given that same boost ongoing, and we assume that the PS4's sales pattern will follow that of the PS3 in 2007 relative to July sales, we find... PS4 sales from now until end of year: 7.65 million. But if we apply current numbers to Wii U with a boost comparable to last year (I'd use Wii 2008 numbers, but it was still having issues with supply during July at that point, so it would unfairly exaggerate the number), Wii U comes out with 4.3 million. And if we use Xbox 360 2006 numbers with Xbox One numbers for this year, we get 2.95 million. So combined, WiiU+XBO would be expected to come out somewhere around 7.25 million, compared with 7.65 million for PS4... And that means WiiU+XBO comes out ahead, because they currently lead PS4 by 1.9 million. So the margin would reduce to 1.5 million, but XBO+WiiU would remain ahead of PS4. |
Hard to take anyone serious that questions sonys own numbers while choses to believe cleary wrong ones.
Lets just bump this soon enough, should be plenty fun.
