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I think you underestimate the effect price parity will have when new Assassins Creed, COD, Fifa etc comes out (MS will probably undercut sony with bundles too). Also the matter that the PS4 and XO have had atrociously bad 3rd party support for new systems, which was especially evident in the XO system sales thus far. Finally the matter that the XO has a better holiday line up then the PS4.

You added a 1m bump but I don't think its generous enough ;p

I think it will do 9m by this years end and 11m next (20m in total). Whereas the PS4 will probably do 16m by the end of this year as you suggested.