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Aielyn on 16 August 2014
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DerNebel said:
Aielyn said:
I doubt it. In order for it to achieve that result, it has to outsell XBO+WiiU weekly enough to push it over the limit. And with the exception of weeks where a significant game releases, it hasn't been doing so.

The most recent week of data has PS4 easily selling better... but that's because TLOU:R released. In the week before that, PS4 sold roughly as much as XBO+WiiU, with none of the systems getting a notable game. Same the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that (and in that week, PS4 had a new game release in 11th on the chart), and the week before that (PS4 had a position-1 title that week), and the week before that. Indeed, with the exception of the most recent week, the last time PS4 outsold XBO+WiiU was in the week before the XBO price cut.

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).

You kinda missed that teeny tiny fact that the PS4 is undertracked by around 550-600k here, if we average it out then the PS4 has sold 167k per week between April 6th and August 10th, and has thus outsold both combined almost every week.

OT: Let's say by the end of the fiscal year (March 31st) and we might be getting close.

If PS4 has been undertracked, it's possible that Wii U and/or XBO have also been undertracked. It's funny how people will point to one system being undertracked, but ignore the possibility of others being undertracked.

Also, you're averaging. It's possible it was undertracked on weeks that major releases happened, and not on the other weeks.

Besides which, I wouldn't be the least surprised if Sony was stretching the truth when they said "sold". It seems way too convenient that they were able to announce on the day of their Gamescom press event that they had just broken the 10 million mark - if they'd done it earlier, you can bet they'd have put out a press release immediately, given the milestone nature of 10 million. And since there's no solid, undeniable source for exact worldwide sales numbers, they can get away with such things. This isn't to say that they certainly lied or misled. But they're restricted by the same thing everybody else is - they can only get some of the numbers. They have to estimate, just like NPD, Famitsu, Media-Create, VGChartz, etc. What they do have access to that others don't is shipped numbers.