XB1 will definitely do above 1 million sales only in November and December, with a remote possibility in October, if any September boost sustains and holiday sales kick in early (big big if). Sadly we won't ever be able to tell the tier 2 country boost XB1 received, because it will most probably get a bigger increase from another release that curiously hasn't been mentioned:
September is the month of Destiny for XB1. (yeah, I did that..)
Just not only for XB1.
So we won't know what boosted XB1 more. PS4 might even get a bigger boost than those two effects combined (absolute/percentage wise) because it has the bundles, the hype and the momentum. That said, it could be a watershed month for XB1 (that other destiny), after Titanfall (March) and the kinectless SKU (June) did not do much.
About the tier 2 countries: Chinas potential is vastly over estimated, and Japan as the biggest market of the bunch might do 200,000 within the first month of sales (about half or less of PS4), 150,000 FW max. All other markets might achieve that combined. Or might not (i'm thinking 250-300 thsd total/month). If additionally Destiny doubles XB1 weekly sales for the month (Titanfall did not, sales doubled for 1 week, another with baseline+30%, then back to previous level) then it might approach 800-900 thousand sales in September. But many ifs. And PS4 can do that on Destiny alone.
But then again I tend to get to optimistic with my estimates, only prediction I would make is PS4 > XB1 for September.
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