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Seece said:

No, not even Nintendo expect 10m (shipped) end of the year (and they have over estimated home console sales for about 6 years running)

Nintendo have been over-estimating... which is why they've underestimated this one. Pretty much everybody who saw Nintendo's forecast for 2014/2015 thought the same thing - they're lowballing their prediction because having to repeatedly go "We weren't able to reach our forecast" becomes tiresome and problematic. Forecasting 3 million and selling 5 million looks better than forecasting 10 million and selling 5 million.