Will Wii U hit 10 million by the end of the year?

[Welfare]

Giggs_11 said:

Welfare said:

Shipped? No. Sold in? No. Now here is my reasoning.

In H1 of the year in the US (Jan-Jun), the Wii U sold 450k units, or an average of 75k per month. That is not very good. Now, in 2H (Jul-Dec), with MK8, and Smash, I predict the Wii U to sell over 1.3 million units (being VERY optimistic here, as this would mean that H2 of 2014 would be bigger than all of 2013 sales for the U), so US total sales by End of 2014 would be 3.672 million units. Now lets give that a 8% to get Canada's number (pulled out of my ass, all I know is that Canada is around 10% of the US) and we get 3.969 million units in North America by the End of 2014. 

Japan. Oh boy Japan. Wii U is already behind YTD compared to 2013, and is very unlikely to go ahead of that, so at most, Wii U would add 525k to the rest of 2014, bringing Japan to about 2.37 million End of 2014. (Again, VERY optimistic, as I am assuming that Wii U will actually close the gap between Last years sales.)

Now for Europe, I am taking a complete shot in the dark here, as I do not have GFK numbers, so I am going off of VGC here. I am just going to give the Wii U a VERY generous 60% increase to 2013, giving slightly above 1 million sales in 2014, and 2.135 million sales End of 2014. Again, these numbers are based of VGC data.

So thats 3,969,000 (US) + 2,370,000 (JAPAN) + 2,135,000 (EUROPE). That is 8,474,000 units by the end of 2014. Now for the Rest of the World, I am again using VGC for this. VGC has the ROTW at ~10%-11% for 2012-14, so we shall get that number from 1900k (my prediction for NA 2014), 848k (Japan 2014 prediction), and 1041k (Europe 2014 prediction), and I get 379k for the ROTW 2014. So now 3,969,000 (NA) + 2,370,000 (JAPAN) + 2,135,000 (EUROPE) + 936,000 (ROTW(2012+2013 were 557k)) = 9,410,000 Units sold by the End of 2014. Shipped in would be around 9.6-9.7 million.

There. Ugh, I probably messed up somewhere, but there. I say that Wii U will not hit 10 million by the End of the year, Shipped or Sold.

Regarding the bolded part, I don't really follow sales that much, but didn't the WiiU sold around 500k in the US just in December alone? If so I think it's a safe bet it'll sell way more a year later, with SSB + MK8 plus all other stuff coming out in 2014 and all that stuff already available in Dec13. Plus competition from PS4/X1 will be less fierce since it's not completely new as it was back in Dec13.

I don't understand much sales nor I follow it but reading your reasoning I agree it makes sense, just think u might be underestimating a few pro-WiiU factors. :D

Wii U has never hit 500k in a single month in the US. In the month that it "did" according to VGC, it was over tracked by 30k.

I am assuming an average of 112k between the months July to October (with bumps and dumps between the months), then a combined total of >850k between November and December. That is an increase of >150k units over Novembe+December 2013, or an increase of ~22%.

My prediction for the Wii U is a very generous and realistic one. Unless July NPD has the Wii U close to or above 112k, I think it is safe to say any Nintendo exlusive would only be selling to people already owning the system, or to people that were going to buy anyway, not enticing new consumers. I'm actually overestimating the Wii U in this prediction.