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Yearly Total Sales / Yearly Pre-holiday Sales  is about 2. 

actually I grabbed numbers for the last few years and it ranged from about 1.7 to 2.6 for systems selling at least 3M in a year.

ps4 sold 4.4M in 2013.  so far in 2014 (not including 1 week of july and 4 weeks of august (and probably vgcz undertracking)) ps4 has sold 4.4M

 

the math says that ps4 will land between 12.3M and 16.2M depending on the holiday ratio.

 

if we assume ps4 sales the same in the next 5 weeks as it did in the last 5 weeks then the math says ps4 will land between 13.4M and 17.7M at the end of 2014.

 

15M at the end of 2014 and 17M by april 2015 sounds about right to me.  but to answer the OP,.. yes it is possible to cross 17M this year.