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I remember an Iwata quote from around 2011 where he told investors their games generally need to hit a million copies sold to be profitable.

If that's true for their handheld games as well (and I don't see why it wouldn't considering that's their main business). then that would make their average 3DS game around $15 - $20 million since they obviously don't pay any 3rd party fees on their own platform.

There's also digital to account for, but Nintendo wasn't as big into digital back in 2011.