3Qs at ~700K 1Q at 1.5 million = 3.6 million.
500K average per month for Oct-Dec seems pretty reasonable. So I think 3.6M sold is doable. I think Nintendo could exceed their 3.6M shipment target, but then again a lot of the April Wii sales is consoles shipped in the previous FY.
What's concerning is that Nintendo projected such pathetic numbers already knowing their software line up for the year. Even if they exceed it by 50% to get 5 million shipped that's still terrible. Their projections determine their production schedule and a sudden rise in demand would be very difficult to meet because of difficulties in quickly raising production capacity.
Their market research is either shockingly bad, or their market research is accurately giving them the message that their 2014 games are not very appealing to people who don't already own a Wii U.
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