I don't think we could draw a comparison with the 3DS/2DS situation because there is full compatibility between them. A gamepadless Wii U would be more like Vita TV since it wouldn't be compatible with all Wii U titles that use the gamepad unless they receive patches (supposing the gamepad isn't essential). Of course, it is different than Vita TV because you could buy a gamepad and it would be just like the normal version, but the cost of doing so kind of defeats the purpose of this addition.
I think too that removing the gamepad and dropping the price may not be the ideal solution since it removes the unique aspect of the console and it will be just a "much weaker PS4". Of course, price is a big issue for casuals, but the original Wii needed the intuitive motion controls to bring them. What will the Wii U use? And we must assume that maybe casuals are lost forever playing on smartphones since it's way cheaper to use a device you already have with thousands of free games instead of buying a console and 60 bucks games. I think that the massive fall of the original Wii sales was caused by smartphones stealing the casual market. Mobile games are total crap, but casuals only want a cheap way to entertain themselves. The more gaming oriented public (that's immense) usually wants a level of quality, so PS360 weren't affected by this takeover.
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