Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

[KBG29]

PS4 should be able to clear 100M with ease. It is well ahead of 360 in both of its first 2 years on the market, and destroying the terrible start of the PS3. To put things into perspective, 360 did not hit 8.4M units sold tell January 27th 2007 according to VGChartz.That is 62 weeks after launch. PS4 has already reached this mark in 34 weeks, and ahead of its second holiday. In 2007 360's second year, it was still selling at a slower rate than PS4 currently is seeing.

Looking into the future PS4 has no known surprises ahead like the launch of two new competitors. Unlike PS3 and 360 PS4 is already making money at the hardware level, and is in a much more PS2 like position where Sony could Knock $100 off the price at next years E3 just like they did in 2002 with PS2. Next year will also see the return of Sony's biggest franchises, along with a much bigger out put from SCEWWS overall. PS4 will be at the forefront of both IPTV, and VR displays, two things which have potential to blow up sales as the generation progresses.

On the negitve side of things (why it would not hit 100M). Microsoft have already stated that Windows 9 will be marketed as the One OS. It is suppoed to unify PC, Tablets, Phone, and XBO. If XBO gets access to all windows phone apps, and Sony has no counter, this could be a major turning point in the generation. Over at Nintendo, if they really move to a single system home a mobile device, and compete in power by 2016 or 17 it could really hurt sales in the later years. Finally, there is the outside chance Steambox, Samsung, Apple, or Amazon could put something out that steals marketshare.