I´m quite confused by this post.
Why do some people still think Playstation 3 sales will explode when the console hits a certain price?
In 2011 the Playstation 3 will be just as "dead" as any other of the two consoles (which depends on the market as a whole). I hope you realize that´s how it worked for 6 generations now and the Playstation 3 won´t be a different case.
The Playstation 2 is still selling because of its mass market appeal and the big library of titles, not because Sony said so.
This generation Sony isn´t market leader anymore. 3rd parties will not release dozens of titles for the PS3 in 2011 anymore even if its userbase is as big as 60 million units as you predicted. Nintendo is market leader now, if a console has the chance to sell after 2011 it is the Wii.
Please keep in mind: If this generation continues after 2011 the Playstation 3 will continue to sell for some more years. But Sony is not in a position to ignore the steps Nintendo and Microsoft do.
Imagine Nintendo anouncing its next console for 2012 - do you really think Sony could ignore that? Do you really think they´d push the PS3 after 2011 in that case? Do you think they´d stick with their "10 year plan"?
That plan was developed with Sony as the clear market leader in mind, like they dominated during the PS2 era. Now things have changed, and while Sony will still be very successful with the PS3 it is unlikely they will see the 3rd party support they´d need to survive into the next generation.
Additionally, it is highly unlikely Sony will wait to drop the price to 200$ untill 2011... which makes your scenario even more unrealistic.
Again: This scenario only works if Sony pushes the PS3 after 2011 as their primary console - but they cannot ignore the steps Nintendo and Microsoft do as that would mean they´d lose even more market share during the 8th gen.
