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The games are coming.. so that's not a question.. we have even (at this point of the gen) seen some new ip's we not expected.. In that case WiiU will for sure be a "succes"

It has to make money.. But that I consider part of..

1. Sell more than 50 mill lifetime
2 Be number 1 or 2 in 8 Gen
3 Keep Nintendo franchises fresh and loved
4 Out of the 20 best selling games this gen.. minimum 10 WiiU games

I think it will get all 4..