Wii sales for the future..

[Final-Fan]

PDF said:

ClaudeLv250 said:
I never "attacked" you. And you talk about Nintendo fans being defensive, you seem to think people questioning your posts is an 'attack' telling you that you're not allowed to think a certain way when that's far from the truth; just another excuse for the victim card. This is a sales site and people are going to debate, and a lot of that is based on facts and sales history. Basically what you 'feel' flies in the face of past trends and most predictions of Wii doom suggest an unprecedented swing and change that goes against the story the numbers tell. Couple this up with vague (YES, VAGUE) and poorly supported arguments revolving around how Nintendo and/or 3rd parties are going to just dry up in the next year for no other inexplicable reason beyond them not having anything else to put out after 20 years and you can see why people would disagree. And I think you're the one that's defensive. You should learn to take the brunt of the arguments when you present an unpopular position on a forum.

You attacked my prediction. I am defending that means your attacking but if you dont like thos words we can call them the negative and affirmative. I would be affirmative since I am backing up my prediction and you are negative since you are trying to break it down. I dont have a problem with you debating my point but you implied that I can not tolerate people having different views than me. When I never had this problem, you do. You dont like my predicitons because I dissagree with your view. I am simply trying to defend my point.

Do you not read any of my other post.? I AM NOT ARGUEING THAT NINTENDO WONT HAVE ANY 3RD PARTY SUPPORT OR ANY NEW IP. I am just saying that they wont be as big as SSBB or MK. Do you know the meaning of Vague?

Vague:not clearly or explicitly stated or expressed. Look at my last post to you because I clearly did this. Poorly supported in your opinion. You have never prooved me wrong. You can have your opinion but that all it is.

I am defensive now but you guys were defensive as soon as I said somthing bad about the Wii. I dont see you guys going after Avinash Tyagi for his outragous predictions. You go after mine because you dont like it.

What you seem to fail to grasp, PDF, is that the entire point of a forum about sales and sales predictions is that people will make predictions and then other people will pick those predictions apart looking for things that need improvement.  In this case people have argued that your predictions seem to be based on little if any actual evidence indicating that your assertions are factual or evidence that your assertions are based on well-supported trends.  In fact, your arguments all seem to hinge on the defiance of all applicable historical trends, with little or no reason given other than "the Wii is just that unique and unprecedented".  That may be so, but you still need either to (1) give some other reason that we should think that your interpretation is correct or (2) not expect us to take your interpretation seriously.

You have attempted to give some other reasons, such as:  Nintendo will run out of IP; Nintendo will not have new IP; third parties will not support it enough; I just think it will.  I may have missed a few, but to my knowledge they have all been shot down by very well-supported arguments (supported, that is, by direct evidence and trend-based evidence) except for the final one, which you well know is not evidence for ANYTHING.

As for vagueness, you have been very specific in your statements of very generalized (i.e. vague) justifications for your predictions.

Now, it may be that your critics are more strenuous in their examination of your predictions compared to predictions that are more optimistic where the Wii is concerned, but that doesn't somehow invalidate their criticisms.  If their criticisms are rational and reasonable, there is no reason for you to dismiss them with blithe generalizations and hand-waving like you have done.

I do give you credit for not retreating into the sad "my opinion so it can't be wrong lol" that so many fall back to, but you DO seem to be headed in the direction of "you can't disprove me completely, 100%, beyond any possible doubt at all, therefore our predictions are equally likely".  That is wrong.

I also want to address a specific point of contention.  You said, "I AM NOT ARGUEING THAT NINTENDO WONT HAVE ANY 3RD PARTY SUPPORT OR ANY NEW IP. I am just saying that they wont be as big as SSBB or MK."

If the 360 and PS3 never have anything as big as GTAIV after that hits, does that mean everything is doom and gloom for them in the future based on that?  No; that's a silly argument.  LBP, KZ2, FFXIII, etc. on the PS3, and all the big games coming to the 360, can still be big hits and system sellers even if they don't ever reach the high-water mark laid down by the giant tsunami that preceded them.  You can say they'll never have something AS BIG as that again -- I've said that many times about Halo 3 on the 360 -- but that doesn't mean that it's all over, and it doesn't even mean that the combined effect of many other games can't potentially be bigger overall.  Your predictions have the Wii decline very very fast and the mere fact that it won't get another game as big as SSBB of MKW (if that is a fact) does not in any way justify that conclusion.  Especially with the comparatively huge legs Nintendo games often get compared to the biggest series on the other consoles.