I was wrong: Wii U will sell < GC

[binary solo]

KLXVER said:

binary solo said:

KLXVER said:
The WiiU will sell more. The industry has become way bigger than it was in the GC era...

No it hasn't. In fact I predict that this generation will have similar sales to the 6th gen, and perhaps less.

Gaming has gotten much bigger, thanks to mobile phones and Facebook type games. But home consoles peaked in the 7th generation, largely thanks to the one generation wonders of the Nintendo blue ocean. That blue ocean has evaporated, as we can see with the pathetic Wii U sales. PS3+X360 < PS2+Xb. PS4 is shaping up to have similar sales to PS3 (only in less time) and Xb one is shaping up to have a lot less sales than X360. If Wii U was to some how miraculously reach 30 million in sales the 8th gen will still fall far short of the 7th gen, and unless MS some how performs a miracle with Xb one the 8th gen will fall well short of the 6th.

The 6th gen moved 200 million consoles. I think the 8th gen won't get above 180 million.

As to the prediction. 20 million seems to be as high as Wii U seems likely to go, and it may fall short. However all bets should be held until we see Wii U at $200. When it hits that price sales may pick up a lot. $200 might do for Wii U what $299 did for PS3. Well maybe not quite PS3 numbers, but in a relative sense Wii U might get a similar % boost sales long term. But perhaps by the time Wii U gets to $200 the market will have laregly forgotten it, which is the danger of not having any kind of momentum behind it.

 

This gen has barely started FFS...

What's that got to do with anything? You can already see it in the numbers. You don't need years worth of sales data to be able to make reasonable predictions for how the generation is likely to go. Can something happen mid-generation to make consoles more popular than ever? Sure. But I don't think it's likely. In fact I think it's more likely that consoles will more and more be seen as a 20th century product and not suited to 21st century sensibilities. So there is more likely to be something mid gen that disrupts the console markets and makes it fizzle rather than take off. Phones and tablets are becomming so powerful that they will soon exceed the current consoles in power, and that could certainly become disruptive to the console market.