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RubberWhistleHistle on 23 June 2014
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Norris2k said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:
Norris2k said:

Then it's quite different from "some games". Certainly it will be absolutely different from the PS1/PS2 in term of total software domination, but we are not talking about selling 150 millions consoles and ending with 75% of the generation sales. And also, having a massive exclusive game advantage was the only way to go. We now have multiplatforms, superior version, Public Relations, indy games, hype, etc. to make a difference. And so far it proves to be enough to get 50% of the market.

My opinion is that the current trend will continue, because the next batch of buyers are followers. They see their friends, watch the news, and based on that buy a console that they think will not fail, not end too soon, is guaranted to be supported by games, and have the best FIFA/COD version.

50% is still quite a bit.. i am not willing to bet that (marginally) superior multiplats and  hype are going to push it to those levels.

You can disagree on what the market will become, it's not big deal, but it's not about "pushing to those levels". It's about staying at the current level. The PS4 is already getting about 50% of the console sales for a few month, that's not anticipation, that's reality. The hype, marginally superior multi, etc. is already giving it a 50% share of monthly sales. The installed market share is only 42% because the Wii U was 1 year ahead and the xbox one had a great launch, but the current trend is 50%.

So, my point is that it will not change because the later the client buy, the more he has a chance to be a follower, and that will preserve the current trend. The question is : does the guy that bought a PS2 3 years late was crazy about the 1000 exclusive games, or did he buy it because all its friends had it, he could get cheaper games, it was a secure buy and because he could borrow FIFA from a friend for free ?

50% isnt out of the question, and i see what youre saying about sheep mentality.. but i really do expect x1 and wii u sales to pick up and ps4 sales to slow down. its not going to continue outselling x1+wii u 2:1  unless sony does something competitive, which it hasnt in awhile. microsoft and nintendo are making a lot of moves right now and sony isnt.