Wii sales for the future..

[TheSource]

Console sales tend to peak well after all the 'good' games are out.

 

Take PS2 sales peak in 2002  (when Kingdom Hearts, Sly Cooper, Ratchet & Clank released). 

That was after Devil May Cry, after GTAIII, after Jack and Dexter, after FFX.

 

GC peaked in 2003 (when Mario Kart, F Zero and Zelda released)

Thats after Smash, Pikmin, Sunshine, Metroid Prime 

 

Xbox peaked in 2004 (when Halo 2 and Fable released)

That was after Halo, PGR, Jet Set Radio Future, Panzer Dragoon Orta, and the GTA Double Pack 

 

That means if Wii is even remotely similar to PS2, Xbox or GC (I think its similar to all three personally.  Wii may be made by Nintendo but its almost like a new brand, the same way Xbox was.  Its similar to PS2 and GC in terms of mass appeal and Nintendo loyalists/pricing respectively) then it will peak in 2008 or 2009.  Personally, I see it peaking from July 1 2008 to June 30 2009, straddling either side of this holiday season.  But if you think Wii is going to see peak sales after its best core games have released, then sales will be up from 2007.  So you have to add at least 16 million to the 19 million LTD figure through the end of 2007, putting Wii at 35 million.  At the same time, Nintendo originally forecast 14 million Wiis shipped for the 12 months ending March 31, 2008, then 16.5 million, then 17.5 million, now 18.5 million (a figure which Nintendo may still exceed).  In contrast Sony and Microsoft have lowered shipment totals for their consoles over the same time frame.  

It really wouldn't be that surprising to expect Wii to ship more than DS at the comparable time frame from launch this year, so something like 25 million as a projected shipment total could be reasonable, while Sony will probably project PS3 to be about 1/2 that level.  Both shipment forecasts will be available in late April.  

 

Now with all that said, if Japan is any indication with DS and PSP, there may certaintly come a time when PS3 will outsell Wii in a region down the line for an extended time frame.  But for that to happen, Wii sales will have to stop going up first, and that ceiling is still months away at least, since at the very least Wii Fit is going to be huge.  If you believe Wii Sports is the main reason Wii is still selling in the west, you have to wonder just how big Wii Fit can be, not to mention Wii Music/Wii Motorsports, or whatever else Nintendo has in its hat.  My take is because of the 360 in the Americas, Wii will not be outsold by PS3 in the Americas for at least 18 months, and it probably won't happen at all.  In Japan, because of PSP and DS, PS3 is in a similar tough scenario.  But in Others, where 360 is weaker, and DS and PSP are probably peaking now, I would not be surprised to see PS3 outsell Wii in Others on and off with a price drop, even by the end of 2008.