You guy should really compare 1st outing on console with each other...
What you guys are doing is like comparing Zelda:MM with Wind Waker, yes WW did well, ya it outsold MM, but compare it OoT.
Look at the PS2 with most 1st debuts were the biggest sales(exception GTA)
FFX> FFXII
GT3> GT4
Jak1 > Jak2 > Jak 3
MGS2 > MGS3
MoH:Frontline > rising sun
those are a few that pop into my head.
So I like the FFX to FFXIII comparison(I really don't think this one has a shot, at least not in Japan), MGS2 to MGS4(this one is possible), GT3 to GT5(I don't think it will happen), Rachet 1 to Rachet:tod(I havent looked into it, but I think data is missing)
anyways you get the point.
Basically the PS3 audience is a good one now, even the people who bought a PS3 for Blu-Ray MIGHT get a game if it looks good to them, if they bought a 40-600 dollar PS3 for Blu-ray money is not an issue and I am sure they are willing to give a game a shot. The non- blu ray PS3ers ARE very hardcore.. or rich... either they can be a good "attach rate audience"
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
