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Arkaign said: (A lot of good stuff) |
That was a very nice insightful post. Though I see you are trying to look at things from a wat MS can do perspective I do think you are being too nice.
First problem is that for some strange reason, people give the XBOX brand way too much credit than it deserves. It took the PS brand two whole generations of back to back successes to become as big as they ae today. The success of the PS3 (though in truth a massive loss if you consider lost market share) was primarily due to the fact that there were a lot of people that still saw the PS as their primary console or at least a console that they should own even if just outta habit. The PS brand is bigger than the games it runs, this is why PS doesn't have any real mascot or go to franchsise (unless you consider whatever car is in front of the next GT game a mascot). Every new gen theer are new games that come out for the PS.
Second problem is, while MS can "compete", they cannot "win" purely on a software level. Cause even if MS releases 4 exclusives every year, its not like sony will just suddenly stop making exclusives too. If anything, over the past 3 gens sony has more than MS shown their commitment to not just first party exclusives but new IPs. Most people will be shocked if they look at how many new IPs sony released for the PS2/PS3 compared to the XB/360.
Third, MS has to do what sony did with the PS3. Show the world that it has the best and most exclusives. MS had the multiplats last gen, and you would only buy multiplats on the PS3 if that was your only console. Sony's first party is still here, and now they have the multiplats. So basically the only reason a neatral will buy the XB1 over the PS4 is if they are die hard fans, prefer halo, gears and forza and are indifferent to every other multiplat out there. If sales indications are anything to go by, I don't see this being the case either.
Fourth, and most importantly; who will sell more worldwide if there is price parity? Not just price parity, but at $199. This is what i believe is the biggest trump card of this gen. After 18 months on the market last gen, sony dropped the price of a console that they were losing $200+ on each unit sold from $600 to $400. This gen, they are already selling the PS4 at a profit. What this means is that the price battle will start sooner than last gen. And it already has. I see the XB1/PS4 being at $199-$250 as early as 2016. Question is, if both consoles are $200, what can MS offer than sony isn't and/or offerring better? They can't play the blu-ray or HDD card. They can't play the better multiplats card. They can't even play the more and better exclusives card. And most telling, they can no longer play the we have the better online service plan since right now they are the one cherry picking features from the PSN.
And this is all why I don't see the XB1 doing verying well against the PS4 this gen. Just look at it, there are tons of ifs and tall orders as to why/how MS can make a comback when listenning to anything anyone would suggest. And all those suggstions are made in a vacum. Assuming that PS just sits back and not just do nothing but suddenly start doing worse.
Everything that is being said as to why or how MS can come back, is something that right now is either already being done on PS or done better on PS. Price drop? PS is already cheaper. Go lower? sony can match them. Exclusives? Sony has more and has a history to actually deliver them. Multiplats? PS is the best place to play now. Online service? PS+ is considered to be the better service this gen (proof is in MS changing certain things and becoming more like PS+). Give more power to devs/better APIs? PS is still the more powerful console and still the easier console to work with.
I don't know, I can't imagine or see any sure reasonable thing MS can do for the XB1 that would suddenly make it start doing as well as the PS4...... not to mention better.
