I think you are right. They launched it wrong, they messaged it wrong, they burned some consumer interest, and to top it off, Sony managed to do everything right.
That said, MS has made some serious repairs since launch, and continues to make the right moves, and Sony is actually fumbling some of that positive momentum they have.
Sure Sony has the better game machine, but if MS has more games, and Sony has long dry spells on the exclusive side and too much indie, and not enough AAA 1st party, would the 3rd party software alone continue to be enough?
The reason that PS3 eventually caught up to X360 was because of the AAA 1st party efforts. The X360 had that clear 3rd party advantage early on. Now it seems the roles are reversed.
I think its anyone's game right now, and as they big two compete, the gamers will continue to be the real winners.
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