No way on earth TF2 stays exclusive. SO would have to do really well in sales to get a sequel, and the release date pretty much ensures it will get annihilated in sales due to much larger multiplats dropping like hydrogen bombs all around it. Dead Rising 4 could go either way, but it's also a poor seller, so it really depends on how much Microsoft cares.
But yeah, to buy TF2 exclusivity, one would have to make up for potentially 12M lifetime sales on PS4, so you do the math. Microsoft isn't going to write a check in excess of half a billion dollars for a single game JUST to keep it off competing platforms.
Truth be told, the checkbook at Microsoft is probably going back in daddy's pocket unless the XB1 has an incredible holiday season.
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