The generation is young, so it's hard to tell, but I do think Nintendo will ship more hardware overall.
Thing is, Sony is in a bit of a catch-22 in this comparison. I'm guessing that if/ when the X1 overtakes the Wii U, Nintendo will pull the plug on it. They will no longer be able to compete in the console space. If the Wii U flops hard enough to do that and gets EOL'ed around, say, 2016, then the 3DS will get so much first party, third party, and indy support that the PS4 will have it's work cut out to overtake it. Conversely, if the Wii U holds on, you have two Nintendo consoles, the handheld market-leading 3DS and likely the middle of the console market Wii U. That's a better combination than first in market/ last in market.
When you look at Sony, though, there's no chance they will EOL the Vita, even if it stays forever a nobody. I could be terribly wrong, but I see the Vita factoring into this much less than the Wii U.
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