There are a lot of confusing factors when trying to make this prediction...
There will be people choosing a system to buy this game.. .Which one will they choose?
360 + Episodic content?
PS3 + Free online play?
Are they looking at the other games that are coming out this year?
Are they looking at playing past next-gen classics?
Does the former tight association with the PlayStation brand for GTAIV make a difference? Lots of issues.
Conventional wisdom would say that the 360 will sell more... right?
After all, there are 17.75 million 360's out in the world to about 11 million PS3s... So more customers.... It is more of a "U.S." game. And here in the U.S. there's even more 360's out there compared to PS3s.
Look how different games don't always reflect the ratio of hardware out there...
I dumped some vgchartz data into a spreadsheet to look at this last week... (There are some "world" sales numbers in there that appear that they only are US numbers... but you can get an idea of how much things can range).
(chart from March 25th, 2008)
I'm not sure what exactly to predict based on all this...
Here, I'll go out on a limb... lol:
**Wait for 8 weeks of sales minimum** and then:
US
360 version outsells PS3 version by 1.99:1 or lower (i.e. It will not break 2:1 and it will be substantially less than the 2.6:1 console advantage that the 360 has). This would APPEAR to be the same as Michael Patcher's estimate... unless he was looking at world sales)
World
360 version will outsell PS3 version by 1.2:1 or lower (i.e. It will sell better on the PS3 than the 1.6:1 console advantage that the 360 has).
Question: If the ratio of 360s to PS3s in the U.S is 2.6:1, then when a game sells at below that ratio (meaning a higher percentage of PS3 owners buy the game than 360 owners), does that mean the game sold "better" on the PS3?
Obviously more copies would be sold to the 360 because there are more total customers... but would you put meaning to the ratios?
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