I honestly think it is a combination of all the factors you guys are mentioning.
To me games like SMG trend almost in a direct correlation with console sold(expept during CMAS). Zelda maybe in a few case attributed to bundles but it was bundled during both dates I tested. I honestly think Zelda has more to do with my 2 main points.
1. Casuals wanted something core(Imo Zelda is the ultimate intro to core gaming, it was for me.)
2. The buyers of the Wii are more core than they were in 07. Due to SSBB and SMG.
Also there are a few games I am waiting to see if they find crazy legs.
1. NMH- it is starting to look that way it is higher this week than it was 2 weeks ago.
2. Endless Ocean- been pretty cosistent.
3. Brawl- Actually seems to be finding legs in Japan... non- holiday legs are unheard of their for Wii except Wii Series.
4. SMG looks to have settle finally in japan, it is actually up this week there. I am thinking it will be selling a consisten 50-70 a week WW for quite some time.
5. M&S- this thing is starting to scare me... it legs are shrinking at all since mid feb, and the olympic buzz is still months away... could this thing crack 6 million on Wii? It sure will get christmased seeing that it is uber casual. Also a new highly hyped sonic game could push sales.
6. Sega Super Stars Tennis- You never know, Tennis+Wii+Sonic= alot of sales(legs)... I am gonna say 1 mil in Europe less than 500k for NA and Japan combined.
7.Carnival Games- I really should have put this at the top... it must stop selling... legs must die.
8.Mario kart- most douptedly will have uberlegs(everywhere)
9. WiiFit- Sold 45k in Japan this week been out since Dec 3... Japan has less legs than NA, and far less than others... I am a little terrified at what this could do.... 10+ no doupt WW... Pacter can eat crow.
I will post more as I think of them.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut







