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It might ultimately struggle to the 500k level, though I'm probably being optimistic.

As for being a flop, I can't say without knowing how much it cost. We also do not know how much financial support was supplied by Nintendo.

However, the game looks really pretty, which probably means it cost a lot to make. At a random guess, I'd say 750k units would take it out of "flop" status and into "eh" status.