Just realized that PS3 has passed 2.0 million in Japan. The console is still tracking similarly to Gamecube and PS1 in Japan, all three consoles were around 2.0 million units about 67-75 weeks from launch.
However:
- Gamecube tailed off pretty quickly from this point onwards.
- At about this time from launch PS1 got a major boost from Tekken 2 and sold 30k+ for 8 weeks, which Gamecube and PS3 have shown an inability to do so far outside of either the immediate launch period or December-January. PS1 in contrast had relatively low holidays, but was boosted by innovative new software like the aforementioned Tekken 2
- PS1 had a weaker launch than GC, and about the same as PS3 initially, before falling behind PS3 as well due to incongruous launch timing. About 1/2 a year in, around 1 million units each, PS1 began passing PS3, and since about week 26 it has seen a low and steady rise cumulatively with occasional bumps. PS3 and GC climb at a comparable rate, but did not get frequent and extended bumps through 75 weeks like PS1 did.
- Extending the 75 week graph out to twice the length of time shows that despite similar sales for GC and PS1 through 75 weeks, there was a five million+ difference in lifetime sales between GC and PS1 by week 150. This was made possible by holiday sales in Dec 96'-Feb 97' (from holidays, FFVII, and momentum) of 100k+ for a large number of weeks. While PS3 is going to get a Final Fantasy title, the game is likely half a year (27 weeks) away at least from Japanese release. Wii is 3.6 million units ahead of PS3 right now in Japan. If it outsells PS3 by less than it is now, say 20k/week on average for 27 weeks, it will be over 4 million units ahead through week, and it will likely be closer to 4.25 million
With all that said, it looks as if the PS3 will eventually be tracking faster than Gamecube in Japan, though a lead of 4 million is essentially insurmountable in Japan, just as a lead of 10 million through 100 weeks is just about insurmountable in the Americas.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
