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       I have been following these games for quite some time. I decided to  pick 3 random dates and compare them to this week to help show the anomoly that the Wii legs are. I pick late oct because it was heading into the holidays season, and I picked Late Jan because not all of the holiday ferver had worn off. It is crazy what I found. Some game never changed like Wario Ware, so were higher each time like TP, and some went up then down, but only a little bit.                                   

 There are many reasons this could be possible... But, I have been preaching for some time that this holiday season, with the indruction of SMG and the anticipation of SSBB that a migration of core gamers occurred. I believe I am right. Core games are trending as far as leg go better than Casual games in most cases. SSBB will only continue this trend. I could see games like TP and MP3 not falling for a long long time.

The other major reason for this anomoly is that the blue ocean stategy is working. Casuals are still buying their party games, but they are wanting something deep. Link seems to be benefitting the most from this. Many casuals not familiar with Zelda might have purchased a Zapper. Then they saw TP, a full  blown game with Link in it and are now giving TP a second Life. TP is actually sell much better now than it did 1 year ago. One thing to point out however that this is NOT happening in Japan. I know their economy is bad, but I really have no explanation for this. Only Brawl and Wii titles seem to sell there. These Numbers are only for NA and Others. Where there is no others data I did it just for NA.

                                            10/19/07               1/25/08                   3/22/08

Metriod Prime 3-              11,000                   15,000                   14,000

Twilight Princess-            25,000                   37,000                   45,000

RE4: Wii-                              22,000                   35,000                   31,000

GHIII-                                      N/A                        70,000                   83,000

Zack and Wiki-                 N/A                        4,700                     4,800

Sonic SR-                              14,000                  17,000                   16,000

Wario Ware-                     7,000(NA)            6000(NA)             7,000(NA)

RRR2-                                      N/A                       28,000                   28,000

Lego SW-                          N/A                       34,000                   32,000

Normal Trending (with good legs)

RE: UC-                              N/A                      30,000                   23,000(Others legs broke NA goen strong)

SPM-                                  25,000                20,000                   13,000(put it in, as an example of "normal good legs")

All I can say is that the Wii is starting to look like the DS. You can add SMG, SSBB, WiiFit, and MK as games that will be top 100 for at least! 3 years... I know there are example of games that do trend normal on the Wii(DQ Swords) but I am not cherry picking to find this many games. I also left some out, more casual stuff like MP8, EA playground and whatever. Also FE: RD seems to be holding up well for a Hardcore SRPG. It is only selling 1k less that it was in late Jan.

 

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut