| kowenicki said: AS REQUESTED HOME ONLY: Ninty had its lowest shipment year since 2005 in FY 2013 (end April 2014) (placed 17th out of 19 years) Sony had its lowest shipment year since 1996 in FY 2013 (end April 2014) (placed 17th out of 19 years) Combined, Ninty ans Sony (home only) shipments are the lowest since 2000 (placed 17th out of 19 years). This is the case despite it being year 2 for the WiiU and a simultaneous global launch for PS4. (Normal transition?)
It is going to look worse from next year... no question about it.
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Well...., I don't see the problem here for Sony. It's obvious the only one who has a "problem" here is Nintendo, and can only be considered a problem if you comprare it to the fad that was Wii. Nintendo is just coming back to pre-Wii years for home consoles.
Sony will come back to 20-25m total shipped in a fiscal year, next year with PS3+PS4 sales. And after seeing the success that X360 was for Microsoft considering it never surpassed 15m shipments in a year thanks to its business model based on Xbox Live (amomg a profitable selling console), if Sony is capable to replicate the same model with a console that starts selling 20-25 mill every year (and I still think it can, starting FY2015), that will mean a lot more profits than PS1 or PS2 ever produced.
I always said that I expect 8th gen to sell lifetime around 210-220mill, so basically around 140m PS4, 50m XBO and 25m WiiU, to make a guess.... That's already a decline of 20% sales, a huge number. Wii inflated the numbers because of casuals and because it was the 2nd console of election to most people that choose only a ps3 or x360 too.
PS3+X360 will end around 170-180m total sales. From that number, if PS4 gets 75% of the sales, this means around 120-130m PS4 and 45-50m XBO sales. Those numbers (or at least vey similar numbers), for me are a safe bet because I don't see those consumers going anywhere...But then you have to consider the "casual" consumer too. If WiiU ends selling around 20-30m it means more than 60-70m were casuals that bought the Wii because it was "cool" then and now will buy another differente console like PS4??. I don't think so many people will buy a PS4 now, but I think there still will be millions that will buy a PS4 because is "cool" to have one.
So, in conclusion, YES, 8th Gen will be like 6th Gen, and YES, that will be fine for home consoles, in fact, it will be better because software profits will be even bigger thanks to digital sales and subscription models.
