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MDMAlliance on 05 June 2014
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Seece said:
MDMAlliance said:


Assuming the changes they're making is sufficient enough to actually boost the XB1 out of its current predicament and that the Wii U fails to do so.  

It will. There is a huge PS3/360 userbase and we're not gonna see PS2 sort of dominance from PS4, MS have too much for that to happen again.

They're not going from an 90m (eventually) install base to something like 20m when they're offering a viable product for PS3/360 owners to upgrade too. Especially as they continue to eliminate reasons to get a PS4 over XB1. Better multiplatform games (never stopped PS3 doing well) is not going to overcome Microsoft and their wallet.

WiiU on the otherhand will not react to any of Nintendos efforts because the problem is with the system itself not having a clear demographic to aim at.

Honestly, I know you're not going to agree with me or think I'm just being unreasonable but I don't think you actually know any of this stuff.  I do think it's a possible interpretation, but the simple fact is that if things were as easy to see as you make it seem like, making successful new products would be extremely easy to do.  Saying the problem is with the system itself for the Wii U is based off of your speculations on the sales trends, internet comments, your personal bias, and the lack of substantial boosts with some of the bigger titles.  Some of these are strong, but none of them are conclusive like you're assuming it is.  

Another thing is that it doesn't need to go from 90m to 20m as your comment stated it would be "tens of millions" ahead of the Wii U.  I'm arguing against the statement that you know that the Wii U will be 20-30m LTD and the XBO will be 50-60m LTD.  It's the most logical prediction, but it's a prediction.  Saying it will vs saying that it might (with a strong emphasis on how likely it is) are two very different things.  A lot of your predictions do make sense, but the problem is as I said before.  

I argue on the camp that there are quite a few other factors here and while things seem to be locked into place, there are still things that could happen during the course of its life time that could make a difference.  

I do think that, as long as XBO does indeed recover, the Wii U has almost no chance of selling more than the XBO.  But, if the Wii U does pick up momentum with some of the new changes Nintendo makes, I don't think the gap will have to be 30m+.  It could be as low as 10m.  Is this what I actually expect?  No.  As things stand now, the Wii U will be last and the XBO will likely pull ahead as it has a stronger foundation.  But that doesn't mean you're right.