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Or a simple tracking error. If you believe NPD is the whole truth (that do some people) than it seems to me that VGC sample has a hardcore bias. It seems that games tend to have bigger opening weeks on VGC than NPD but NPD give the games better legs.

ioi had it down for 1.8 Million before Big N said something, so he did a little overshooting. Good possible that he know undershoots a little on the second week. Again, thats only interesting if you believe that NPD is the truth and nothing but the truth.