Prediction: Mario Kart 8 is top selling Wii U game at end of year

[Twilord]

gergroy said:

Twilord said:

Ka-pi96 said:

Twilord said:
Wouldn't be that surprised if Mario Kart was the best selling game overall. Pokemon has a chance to beat it but I'd be a bit surprised.

Overall, as in on all consoles?

COD has that in the bag already.

Without getting into an argument as to if the franchise is set to decline, I think it would need to be of system seller quality on next gen consoles to offset the fact it often gets sales from people who want to play together during this transition peroid. As in, some of their market won't get COD because their friends have 'the wrong generation'.

Even if the next call of duty sold 25% of what ghosts did, it would still out sell mario kart.  Of course, there is no way the series is going decline anywhere near that much... Anything more than a 20% decline is unrealistic....

 

Mario Kart comes with a free game, which secures more purchases until that deal ends at the end of July. 

Assuming the overall sales stabilizes at 20% of the launch weekend every day while that deal is on (easier than having potentially exponentional growth starting this week given Mario Kart's reliance on word-of-mouth).

1,200,000 / 20% =  240,000
240,000 x 60

14,400,000 + 1,200,000
15,600,000

(LIFE TO DATE OF GHOSTS: 1,770,000 XO + 7,950,000 PS3 + 8,660,000 X360 + 160,000 WU + 550,000 Win + 2,250,000 PS4) = 21,340,000

80% of 21,340,000 (presumed active sales, games like CoD and Mario Kart are both nightmares for looking back, they sell you long-time, as it were.)
17,072,000 

20% of 17,072,000 (series decline assumption)
3,414,400

17,072,000 - 3,414,400
13,657,600

 

For simplicity lets say that COD's being multi-platform simply has the same as Mario Kart being released so much earlier on year end sales.