Mario Kart 8 sales prediction thread

[TheLastStarFighter]

Yakuzaice said:

Zero999 said:

JWeinCom said:
MK7 sold about a million week 1 in all regions on an install base that was I believe around one million at that point. Also, it was sold during the holidays, so MK8 should fall significantly short of that. So, I'll say about 700K.

I'd say lifetime sales would be about 10 million if it were not bundled, but bundles will probably bring it closer to 15 million.

But mk 8 has much more acumulated hype and the franchise tends to do better on home consoles.

I'm not really sure how you quantify accumulated hype.  Mario Kart Wii did about 2.1m across its launch weeks on a console with a 24 million install base (25.5m by the US launch week).  On Amazon, Mario Kart Wii was 11th for the month of March in 2008, MK8 didn't make the top 100 for March 2014.  In April MKWii went up to number 3.  MK8 should make it in for April, but seeing as how it is currently at 27, I don't see it making it to third.  MKWii hit number one (Wii wheel number two) for May.  The market was also quite a bit bigger in 2008 which would exacerbate placement differences.  Now Amazon is just one retailer, and I am only looking at the US site, but it certainly isn't pointing towards a 1.5m launch week.

VGC preorders (which admittedly aren't worth much) aren't looking like such a strong launch either.  1.5m WW would likely require around 700k US at least.  No Wii U game so far has gotten even half of that, and only 4 have sold that lifetime in North America (three of which have been bundled).  If MK8 has the same launch ratio that Galaxy/3D World had, we'd be looking at ~280k in the US.  Though I think it can do better than that.

Zero was a bit high, but it looks like your criticism was way off.