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If you compare similar games such as Animal Crossing it will likely flop. AC is much smaller in the USAand Europe when compared to sales in the Japanese region. Additionally, this game not being advertised the same and doesn't have the same brand recognition. These types of games only get very successful if many people buy them as they are social games. Without a strong start it will likely die off into oblivion. I expect 400k combined between USA and Europe shipped.