One thing I've seemed to notice, is that third parties in past gens used to bring out games that helped sell systems... It seems like these days(I can't blame them) they are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the systems to sell before they release anything. I know there are some cross gen games and a few announced next gen exclusives, but I remember having quite a few more games from the ps2/Xbox/cube launch year, and the ps360/wii launch year. I don't remember the drought in releases like there is now... Perhaps my memory is just a bit off, but it seems that way.
If the ps4 sells horribly for too long, like the entire first year, why would third parties suddenly jump in and make tons of games for it? The install base there would be too small... I see them sticking to the ps3 for a lot longer than most were hoping for... Kinda like the way they stuck with the psp and didn't jump over to vita. If it doesn't sell well for long enough, it will remain irrelevant.
It may get a bump here and there, like the vita, but will not consistently sell big weekly.. I have a feeling that Japanese home consoles will get some big Japanese games, but the majority of Japanese releases will go to the portable and smartphone markets.
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