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MGS 4 will be this years biggest PS3 hit, seeing as I doubt we'll see neither FFXIII nor GT 5 this year.
1.8 million first day ww and 4 million first year.
Hardware should be around 350k for the launch week and perhaps 300k the week after with a more or less steady 240-280k every week after until fall.
I think GTA 4 will help tremendously until MGS arrives in june!