My predictions are not spot on, but still happy with them 
December 2013
|
roborad said:
ICStats said:
shikamaru317 said:
So, I was just looking at pricing histories for various consoles. Here are the first two price drops for each 6th and 7th gen console:
Xbox
-$100 (7 months after release)
-$20 (19 months after release)
PS2
-$100 (18 months after release)
-$20 (30 months after release)
Gamecube
-$50 (7 months after release)
-$50 (23 months after release)
Xbox 360
-$20 (21 months after release)
-$80 (34 months after release)
PS3
-$100 + bigger hard drive (12 months after release)
-$100 + bigger hard drive (33 months after release)
Wii
-$50 (34 months after release)
The trend is that the more expensive a console is to start with, the faster you see price drops. The Xbox One is the most expensive console this generation. Like I said above, I expect we'll see $450 or 400 in time for Holiday 2014, $400 or $350 by Summer 2015, and $350 or $300 by Spring 2016. |
Good data. I think it also shows that whichever console is losing in sales gets cut quicker.
PS2 taking 18 months for any change, while Xbox & Wii cut in 7 months.
Wii & X360 taking 34 months for a serious cut, while PS4 took a big cut in 12.
So I think XB1 will get cut quick and deep, because it's expensive and will be killed by the PS4 :P.
|
I doubt the xbox one is getting or will be killed by the ps4.
It will definitely be outsold by the ps4 (many people see a $100 difference and will automatically jump at the cheaper product), but I doubt the xbox one will sell poor enough to see a very quick and 'deep' price cut. Titanfall and Halo 5 (and probably fable legends) will keep the boosts coming, not to mention the other exclusives.
|
ICStats said:
selnor1983 said:
Its the best selling Xbox every week so far. Don't expect a cut anytime soon. |
XB1 has sold great, but it's too soon to call it a trend. The Xbox 360 was in much lower supply, taking 3 to 4 months to ship 1 million units to the US when it launched. It's hard to tell if the XB1 has a better start thanks to it's appeal or thanks to it's stock availability.
The 360 launched with $299 Core and $399 Pro models, so I think we'll see the $499 XB1 have a harder time in the long run.
I think we'll get XB1 Core for $399 with no Kinect sooner rather than later.
|
February 2014
ICStats said:
I don't know if they will, but I think they should.
My prediction - XB1 without kinect with a bundled game for $399, 2014 holiday season. See you in 8 months.
If Sony can sell PS4 with a more powerful GPU and 8GB GDDR5 memory for $399, then MS should be able to get the Kinect-free XB1 below $399 soon.
|
