All of us who called Microsoft bluff with the Kinect deserve a pat on the back

[ICStats]

Nicklesbe said:

ICStats said:

Nicklesbe said:

ICStats said:
I respect everyone who realized that Kinect would have to go.

Getting the month right is secondary. There is always a winner in a coin flipping contest.

Is it really fair to call this a coin flipping contest?  A coin only has two options. There are 12 months in a year and they could have decided in any of them. Heck they could have even waited a whole year or two. They didn't they chose june of the first year which requires more knowledge and understanding than a simple A:B option. Even if you are correct and it is secondary the precision and accuracy still deserves respect. Even predicting the result of coin flip merits respect. 

A coin flipping contest goes like this: you take 1 million people who each face off against each other picking heads or tails.  Each round half win half lose.  At the end you are left with 1 winner.  That is just one lucky guy but there will be one every time.  Predicting the result of a coin flip doesn't merit any respect because it doesn't require skill or thought and can't be repeated.

Ofcourse it's just an analogy - there is lower probability of calling the right month than calling a coin flip - but if there are enough people making predictions, then someone will be right.

There's not a million people making those predictions tho. There aren't millions of people that use these forums and make predictions. It's considerably less than that. Predicting the results of a coin flip does merit respect. There are plenty of studies that disprove your assumptions about it http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/12/beware_canadian.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20InfectiousGreed%20%28Paul%20Kedrosky%27s%20Infectious%20Greed%29

 

This isn't a coin flip. Corporations are made up of people which with enough knowledge and skill can be predictable. This wasn't millions of people guessing and getting lucky. This was a group of people knowing a company and people well enough to accurately determine their habits and precisely predicting how they were going to react. That merits respect. Trivializing it gives the impression of jealousy or contempt for them being right and is frankly petty. 

I haven't said anything out of jealousy or being petty.

One extreme is trivializing the other is overblowing.  If someone had the ability to predict such things accurately to the month on a consistent basis then that would be amazing, but since these events have many unknowns it isn't reasonable to expect someone to predict accurately to the month on a consistent basis.  That's why (and just my opinion) I give respect for being right based on reasoning, and being super accurate is cool but secondary.

Plus not that it matters but IIRC STAGE famously declared that XB1 was winning the console war around December timeframe, later changing his mind and getting a PS4 so you know after this flip-flopping I'm going to give him kudos for the Kinect prediction but not treat him like the oracle of VGC.