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I have a theory, which is that the last Donkey Kong game sold so well because the average parent saw it as a typical colourful platformer, and that they were surprised by how hard the game was, basically, they expected something more similar to Mario than Battletoads, so, they got burned, and are not going to buy the new Donkey Kong game for their kid.
Install base matter, but Donkey Kong isn't selling as well as it should even taking into account that.
I think it may sell over 2 millions in the long run, basically, it will sell like Super Ghouls and Ghosts or Maximo + people who buy it because it is a recognizable Nintendo franchise.