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fleischr said:
I think it has to do more with avoiding ugly news headlines.

In the last year, the press could easily provoke a response by declaring how far behind Nintendo was to their sales goals. It made the WiiU look extra bad. By setting a very conservative estimate, they probably won't need deal with the same perception issues in the coming year.

Aim low and you're sure to hit.

3.6m expcted Wii U sales seems like a pretty ugly news headline.