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I'm going to try thinking about it a different way than I normally do. Here's a rough estimate of the percent chance I think WiiU has of passing these benchmarks by the end of 2017.

30 - 1%
28 - 3%
26 - 8%
24 - 35%
22 - 42%
20 - 55%
18 -82%
16 -97%